Algos own the first hour. You own days 3 to 10.Macro news reprices gold in minutes and a TSXV explorer in 5–21 days, up to 2.31x harder.How it works
How the model works
Every figure in the Situation Room comes from one of the four tables below. None of it is generated per event: an event is classified, and the tables do the rest.
The three steps
- News reaches a driver. A rate decision moves the dollar in minutes and gold in hours. This is the part you cannot trade — the algorithms are already done.
- The driver reaches a company. Senior producers move the same day. Resource companies take two to seven. TSXV explorers take five to twenty-one.
- The move is amplified. A junior does not move by the same percentage as the metal. Part C records a factor per company, from 0.70x to 2.31x.
Stage timings
| Driver move | Senior producers | Mid-tier producers | Resource | Exploration | Amplification (as recorded) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold Futures ±5% | Same day | 1–2 days | 2–5 days | 3–10 days | 1.5-2.5x at producer, 0.5-3x at junior |
| Silver Futures ±5% | Same day | 1–2 days | 3–5 days | 5–14 days | 1.0-1.5x at producer, 1-4x at junior |
| Copper Futures ±5% | Same day | 1–3 days | 3–7 days | 5–14 days | 0.8-1.6x at producer, 0.5-2x at junior |
| Uranium (URA) ±5% | Same day | 1–2 days | 2–5 days | 5–14 days | 1.0-2.0x at producer, 1-5x at junior |
| Battery Metals (LIT) ±5% | Same day | 1–3 days | 3–7 days | 7–21 days | 0.9-1.2x at producer, 1-3x at junior |
| DXY ±2% | 1 day | 1–3 days | 3–7 days | 5–14 days | Inverse: 2-3x at producer, 1-5x at junior |
| TNX ±50bps | 1–3 days | 2–5 days | 3–10 days | 7–21 days | 0.5-1x at producer, 0.5-2x resource (financing) |
| VIX Spike >25 | Same day | 1–2 days | 1–5 days | 1–7 days | Gold up 0.5-1x, Base metals down 1-2x |
| S&P 500 ±3% | Same day | 1–2 days | 2–5 days | 1–7 days | 0.5-1.5x, juniors hit hardest in selloffs |
Coverage
| Sector | Companies |
|---|---|
| Copper | 25 |
| Gold | 25 |
| Silver | 21 |
| Battery metals | 24 |
| Uranium | 24 |
| Total | 119, of which 95 are TSX or TSXV listed |
What this is not
- Not a forecast for any single company. These are typical timings across a stage. Any one company can move early, late, or the other way entirely.
- Not a live model, yet. Every figure is derived from Apr 2023 – Mar 2026. It is re-derived when the price history behind it is rebuilt, not continuously.
- Not complete. Uranium has 24 companies with sensitivity data but no event playbook, so uranium events show no cascade. That gap is real and we would rather say so than hide it.
- Not investment advice. Tenbagger Media is a media company, not an adviser. Small-cap and exploration stocks are highly speculative and you can lose everything you put in.